• <form id="cvw98CH"></form>

    <sub id="cvw98CH"><table id="cvw98CH"></table></sub>
    <wbr id="cvw98CH"></wbr>
    <form id="cvw98CH"><th id="cvw98CH"></th></form>
    <nav id="cvw98CH"></nav>
    <nav id="cvw98CH"><code id="cvw98CH"></code></nav>
    1. <sub id="cvw98CH"></sub>
      <sub id="cvw98CH"></sub>
      Freddy Hutter, data analyst







      Freddy Hutter, data analyst



      thanx

      I've been sharing updates of my "Covid Fatalities Projections" since April 2020 and updates of my "Yukon Protocol" since Aug/2009.  The latter provides policymakers & the public with my calculations of each nation's obligation to meet their commitment to the UN's Green Climate Fund.  As re-affirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021, the world's 114 least mature economies may draw upon the Fund to build green infrastructure.  Below is a list of the top 100 cumulative co2 emitters - calculated back to Year 1750 - and their annual assessments.

      TRENDLines Research began publishing real estate stats in 1989 and conducted political polling & election projections in several nations shortly thereafter.  In the coming months I hope to publish a variety of my other macro-economic models:  the TRENDLines Recession Indicator (USA, Canada & China), historic Realty Bubbles (USA, Canada, UK & Australia), Peak Oil projection, Gasoline & Oil Price Components, projected Sea Level by Year 2100 & projected co2 ppm by Year 2100.


      TRENDLines Research

      charts@

      facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

      twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

      112 Deep Bay Marina
      Box 191 Bowser BC Canada V0R1G0
      (250) 918-5325
      from  canada, eh!
      TRENDLines Research  ...   providing macro-economic charts & guidance for legislators, policymakers, investors, stakeholders & the public
      long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines Research removes the noise from economic & science data to reveal the underlying trends

      ~

      TRENDLines Research's
      Covid Fatalities Projections

      covid may2022
      new
      "future deaths" figures above are updated weekly at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

      next monthly chart update:  June 17th 2022

      --- until next monthly composite chart update on June 17 2022, see weekly update of "future deaths" at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

      OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANT WAVE MAY END NOVEMBER 2022!
      PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  86,000 WORLDWIDE
      incl:  USA 10,800 & UK 3,900 & CANADA 1,880 (incl 670 ONTARIO & 166 BC VICTIMS)

      May 20th 2022 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2022 death count of 6.36 million worldwide (present toll 6.27 million + 86,000 future) incl 1,027,200 in the USA (1,016,400 toll + 10,800 future);  200,200 in the UK (196,300 toll + 3,900 future) & 42,270 in Canada (40,390 toll + 1,880 future) incl 13,790 in Ontario (13,120 toll + 670 future) & 3,564 in BC (3,398 toll + 166 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron sub-variants.

      Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 35 month duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern).

      This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of premature lifting of restrictions (thrice);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (eg masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta.

      These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and founded an environment for the Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.2 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

      My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overcame the gains.

      In much of the word, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Original, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves.

      As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in Vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work.  And fortunately, the latter are mostly right-wing qAnons.

      Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain, the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity.

      Current model runs indicate Omicron and its sub-variants will transition to endemic status June thru September.  :  late April in Ontario & Canada-wide;  early May in BC & USA;  and early June in UK & Worldwide.  Omicron's BA2 sub-variant is presently forming a 4th Covid19 Wave.  As 34% of the globe still lacks even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

      See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

        &  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

      new weekly update of future deaths projections:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

      WORLDWIDE
      Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 86,000 fatalities across the globe while transitioning to endemic status in mid July and expire in November  -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (6.27 million), an ultimate 6.36 million victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,600) is down 89% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 64% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), UK, Brazil, Russia, France, Canada, Thailand, South Korea, Australia & Japan.

      The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.33 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

      Worldwide
      mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

      USA
      The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 10,800 fatalities across America while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in September -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,016,400), an ultimate 1,027,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (39), New York, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia & Texas.

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests the USA's Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

      It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

      The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

      The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,015,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

      USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

      UK
      The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 3,900 fatalities across the UK while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (196,300), an ultimate 200,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (120) is 90% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests the UK's Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      The model reveals 149K souls (of 195,650 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today's world "active" cases.

      37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

      UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

      CANADA
      The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 1,880 fatalities across Canada while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (40,390), an ultimate 42,270 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (37) is 79% below its May 2020 record high (175).

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests Canada's Covid19 pandemic is 96% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      The model reveals 29K souls (of 38,470 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

      Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

      ONTARIO
      The
      model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 670 fatalities across Ontario while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (13,120), an ultimate 13,790 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (13) is 80% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests Ontario's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      The model reveals 10K (of 12,750 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

      Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million

      BC
      The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 166 fatalities across the Province while transitioning to endemic status in late June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,398), an ultimate 3,564 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

      It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (8) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

      Failing a new wave, the model suggests BC's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

      The model reveals 2K souls (of 3,066 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

      BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

      Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

      BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million

      The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
      These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

      There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

       
      About TRENDLines Research
      Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.


      Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

      BC
      Ontario Canada
      UK
      USA
      World
      newMay 20 2022
      3,56413,79042,270
      200,200
      1,027,200
      6.36 million
      April 8
      3,06612,75038,470
      195,650
      1,015,000
      6.33 million
      March 6
      3,19612,81038,050
      163,180
      1,071,000
      6.31 million
      February
      -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
      January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
      Dec 18 2021
      2,48810,70031,190
      154,200
      889,000
      5.8 million
      Nov 24
      2,36510,11030,700
      150,250
      859,000
      6.1 million
      Oct 9
      2,0549,96029,200
      141,730
      773,000
      5.6 million
      September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
      August
      -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
      July 5
      1,7789,80027,020
      128,990
      621,000
      4.4 million
      June 2
      1,8079,44027,490
      128,435
      655,000
      4,560,000
      May 3
      2,257
      8,60025,820
      128,200
      650,000
      4,320,000
      April 1
      1,668
      7,96524,070
      127,460
      584,000
      7,700,000
      March 1
      1,406
      7,27022,840
      127,100
      570,000
      2,900,000
      Feb 3
      1,317
      7,68022,260
      129,500
      520,000
      2,730,000
      Jan 18
      1,250
      7,81022,700
      102,700
      604,000
      8,950,000
      Jan 2 2021
      1,151
      5,56019,000
      139,000
      763,000
      4,400,000
      Dec 16 2020
      -
      4,22015,330
      89,000
      599,000
      3,190,000
      Nov 20
      -
      -13,400
      -396,000
      2,110,000
      Oct 20
      412
      3,54010,800
      46,500295,000
      1,970,000
      Oct 10
      374
      3,5409,840
      44,450289,000
      2,090,000
      Sept 30
      290
      3,03810,160
      44,800270,000
      1,670,000
      Sept 20
      437
      2,9479,895
      43,840266,000
      1,730,000
      Sept 10
      277
      2,9059,440
      42,200245,000
      1,440,000
      Sept 5
      274
      2,909 9,460
      42,120 267,000
      1,410,000
      Aug 30
      216
      2,9299,450
      42,230284,000
      1,380,000
      Aug 25
      217
      2,8689,370
      42,010269,000
      1,450,000
      Aug 20
      205
      2,8629,302
      41,990265,000
      1,490,000
      Aug 15
      204
      2,8519,100
      48,600418,000
      2,100,000
      Aug 10
      207
      2,8529,075
      48,800377,000
      2,450,000
      Aug 5
      205
      2,8549,070
      48,500282,000
      1,990,000
      July 30
      207
      2,8459,050
      48,200308,000
      2,040,000
      July 25
      199
      2,8439,030
      48,100239,000
      1,630,000
      July 20
      215
      2,8509,060
      48,100204,000
      1,500,000
      July 15
      200
      2,8258,940
      46,200180,000
      1,140,000
      July 10
      189 2,8208,930
      46,000175,000
      1,170,000
      July 5
      180 2,8458,910
      46,000173,000
      1,170,000
      June 30
      177 2,8908,840
      45,600161,000
      1,340,000
      June 25
      172 2,9208,860
      44,700141,000
      1,190,000
      June 21st 2020
      Actual Deaths:
      171 2,657 8,481
      42,731 122,468
      472,779
      June 20 forecasts
      for Year 2020

      170
      2,8109,000
      46,800145,000
      1,145,000
      June 16
      170
      2,9409,660
      48,900140,000
      905,000
      June 12
      172
      3,17010,200
      47,400141,000
      852,000
      June 9
      172
      3,5309,430
      49,200134,000
      640,000
      June 6
      191
      2,7709,700
      45,500127,000
      525,000
      June 3
      197
      2,5508,470
      42,500122,000
      471,000
      June 1
      216
      2,5408,370
      42,000122,000
      466,000
      May 30
      225
      2,5307,990
      41,600121,000
      428,000
      May 28
      217
      2,4807,870
      41,100119,000
      420,000
      May 26
      225
      2,3907,590
      41,600119,000
      420,000
      May 24
      224

      7,470

      120,000
      420,000
      May 22
      223

      7,300

      117,000
      409,000
      May 20
      196

      7,040

      111,000
      403,000
      May 18
      193

      7,135

      110,000
      406,000
      May 16
      180

      7,125

      111,000
      396,000
      May 14
      174

      7,025

      109,000
      381,000
      May 12
      189

      6,850

      105,000
      386,000
      May 10
      222

      6,900

      116,000
      393,000
      May 8
      183

      6,860

      119,000
      339,000
      May 6
      202

      6,475

      103,000
      352,000
      May 4
      200

      6,000

      95,000
      386,000
      May 2
      205

      5,900

      117,000
      380,000
      Apr 30 2020
      238

      5,120

      80,000
      380,000
      Apr 28 forecasts
      for June 21st 2020
      176

      3,960

      70,500
      314,000

      TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

        Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

      "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

      It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

      But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

      Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

      This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

      It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

      From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

      So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

      And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

      The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

      The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far).

      Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

      TRI USA long

      the traditional definitions

      TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
      SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
      DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
      GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

      RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
      EXPANSION PERIOD: 
      monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

      STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
       
      UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
      MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
      WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

      U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

      real unemployment rates





      START
      FINISH




      ~

      send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
       Last modified:  May 20, 2022  ~  (? 1989-2022 TRENDLines Research)


      keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


      TRENDLines Research's

      YUKON PROTOCOL
      for the UN's
      CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN
      & its GREEN CLIMATE FUND

      Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021.

      As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet".

      Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth.

      So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations.

      Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels.

      TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions.

      The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans.

      With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters.

      Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources.

      link to 5pg printable PDF


      YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN


      Top 100
       emitter nations

      funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions


      assessed share of
      $100 billion target


      emitter rating

       

       

       

       

      United States

      25.65%

      $25,651,095,494

      1

      China

      13.76%

      $13,755,684,167

      2

      Russia

      7.12%

      $7,120,711,038

      3

      Germany

      5.75%

      $5,746,176,106

      4

      United Kingdom

      4.87%

      $4,867,713,931

      5

      Japan

      4.04%

      $4,040,926,002

      6

      India

      3.25%

      $3,245,142,621

      7

      France

      2.39%

      $2,387,350,145

      8

      Canada

      2.07%

      $2,066,969,822

      9

      Ukraine

      1.85%

      $1,849,937,991

      10

      Poland

      1.73%

      $1,725,919,802

      11

      Italy

      1.52%

      $1,519,222,819

      12

      South Africa

      1.29%

      $1,291,856,139

      13

      Mexico

      1.24%

      $1,240,181,893

      14

      Iran

      1.15%

      $1,147,168,251

      15

      Australia

      1.14%

      $1,136,833,402

      16

      South Korea

      1.06%

      $1,064,489,458

      17

      Brazil

      0.95%

      $950,806,118

      18

      Saudi Arabia

      0.93%

      $930,136,420

      19

      Spain

      0.92%

      $919,801,571

      20

      Indonesia

      0.85%

      $847,457,627

      21

      Kazakhstan

      0.84%

      $837,122,778

      22

      Belgium

      0.78%

      $775,113,683

      23

      Czechia

      0.74%

      $744,109,136

      24

      Netherlands

      0.72%

      $723,439,438

      25

      Turkey

      0.65%

      $651,095,494

      26

      Taiwan

      0.54%

      $537,412,154

      27

      Romania

      0.53%

      $527,077,305

      28

      Argentina

      0.52%

      $516,742,456

      29

      Venezuela

      0.49%

      $485,737,908

      30

      Thailand

      0.44%

      $444,398,512

      31

      Uzbekistan

      0.41%

      $413,393,964

      32

      Egypt

      0.38%

      $382,389,417

      33

      Malaysia

      0.36%

      $361,719,719

      34

      Austria

      0.34%

      $341,050,021

      35

      Belarus

      0.33%

      $330,715,172

      36

      North Korea

      0.32%

      $320,380,322

      37

      Hungary

      0.31%

      $310,045,473

      38

      Pakistan

      0.31%

      $310,045,473

      38

      Sweden

      0.31%

      $310,045,473

      38

      United Arab Emirates

      0.29%

      $289,375,775

      41

      Algeria

      0.28%

      $279,040,926

      42

      Iraq

      0.28%

      $279,040,926

      43

      Denmark

      0.26%

      $258,371,228

      44

      Greece

      0.25%

      $248,036,379

      45

      Bulgaria

      0.24%

      $237,701,530

      46

      Nigeria

      0.24%

      $237,701,530

      46

      Slovakia

      0.24%

      $237,701,530

      46

      Vietnam

      0.23%

      $227,366,680

      49

      Colombia

      0.21%

      $206,696,982

      50

      Philippines

      0.21%

      $206,696,982

      50

      Finland

      0.20%

      $196,362,133

      52

      Switzerland

      0.19%

      $186,027,284

      53

      Chile

      0.18%

      $175,692,435

      54

      Kuwait

      0.18%

      $175,692,435

      54

      Serbia

      0.18%

      $175,692,435

      54

      Azerbaijan

      0.17%

      $165,357,586

      57

      Norway

      0.17%

      $165,357,586

      57

      Portugal

      0.17%

      $165,357,586

      57

      Turkmenistan

      0.17%

      $165,357,586

      57

      Israel

      0.14%

      $144,687,888

      61

      Ireland

      0.13%

      $134,353,038

      62

      Singapore

      0.13%

      $134,353,038

      62

      Libya

      0.12%

      $124,018,189

      64

      Qatar

      0.12%

      $124,018,189

      64

      New Zealand

      0.11%

      $113,683,340

      66

      Peru

      0.11%

      $113,683,340

      66

      Syria

      0.11%

      $113,683,340

      66

      Cuba

      0.10%

      $103,348,491

      69

      Hong Kong

      0.10%

      $103,348,491

      69

      Morocco

      0.10%

      $103,348,491

      69

      Bangladesh

      0.09%

      $93,013,642

      72

      Estonia

      0.09%

      $93,013,642

      72

      Trinidad & Tobago

      0.09%

      $93,013,642

      72

      Lithuania

      0.08%

      $82,678,793

      75

      Croatia

      0.07%

      $72,343,944

      76

      Ecuador

      0.07%

      $72,343,944

      76

      Oman

      0.07%

      $72,343,944

      76

      Bosnia & Herzegovina

      0.06%

      $62,009,095

      79

      Georgia

      0.06%

      $62,009,095

      79

      Moldova

      0.06%

      $62,009,095

      79

      Bahrain

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Kyrgyzstan

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Latvia

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Luxembourg

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Slovenia

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Tunisia

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Zimbabwe

      0.05%

      $51,674,246

      82

      Angola

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Armenia

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Dominican Republic

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Jordan

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Lebanon

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Mongolia

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      North Macedonia

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Yemen

      0.04%

      $41,339,396

      89

      Bolivia

      0.03%

      $31,004,547

      97

      Curacao

      0.03%

      $31,004,547

      97

      Guatemala

      0.03%

      $31,004,547

      97

      Jamaica

      0.03%

      $31,004,547

      97

       

      100.00%

       

      assessed nations:

      ver 21.1116

      100.00%

      $100,000,000,000

      100

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

      114 Recipient Entities:

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

      Kenya

       

       

       

      Myanmar

       

       

       

      Sri Lanka

       

       

       

      Sudan

       

       

       

      Tajikistan

       

       

       

      Albania

       

       

       

      Brunei

       

       

       

      Cote d'Ivoire

       

       

       

      Cyprus

       

       

       

      Gabon

       

       

       

      Ghana

       

       

       

      Honduras

       

       

       

      Panama

       

       

       

      Uruguay

       

       

       

      Afghanistan

       

       

       

      Bahamas

       

       

       

      Benin

       

       

       

      Botswana

       

       

       

      Cambodia

       

       

       

      Cameroon

       

       

       

      Costa Rica

       

       

       

      Democratic Republic of Congo

       

       

       

      El Salvador

       

       

       

      Equatorial Guinea

       

       

       

      Ethiopia

       

       

       

      Guyana

       

       

       

      Iceland

       

       

       

      Kosovo

       

       

       

      Laos

       

       

       

      Madagascar

       

       

       

      Malta

       

       

       

      Mauritius

       

       

       

      Montenegro

       

       

       

      Mozambique

       

       

       

      Nepal

       

       

       

      New Caledonia

       

       

       

      Nicaragua

       

       

       

      Papua New Guinea

       

       

       

      Paraguay

       

       

       

      Senegal

       

       

       

      Suriname

       

       

       

      Tanzania

       

       

       

      Uganda

       

       

       

      Zambia

       

       

       

      Andorra

       

       

       

      Anguilla

       

       

       

      Antigua & Barbuda

       

       

       

      Aruba

       

       

       

      Barbados

       

       

       

      Belize

       

       

       

      Bermuda

       

       

       

      Bhutan

       

       

       

      Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba

       

       

       

      British Virgin Islands

       

       

       

      Burkina Faso

       

       

       

      Burundi

       

       

       

      Cape Verde

       

       

       

      Central African Republic

       

       

       

      Chad

       

       

       

      Comoros

       

       

       

      Congo

       

       

       

      Cook Islands

       

       

       

      Djibouti

       

       

       

      Dominica

       

       

       

      Eritrea

       

       

       

      Eswatini

       

       

       

      Faeroe Islands

       

       

       

      Fiji

       

       

       

      French Polynesia

       

       

       

      Gambia

       

       

       

      Greenland

       

       

       

      Grenada

       

       

       

      Guinea

       

       

       

      Guinea-Bissau

       

       

       

      Haiti

       

       

       

      Kiribati

       

       

       

      Lesotho

       

       

       

      Liberia

       

       

       

      Liechtenstein

       

       

       

      Macao

       

       

       

      Malawi

       

       

       

      Maldives

       

       

       

      Mali

       

       

       

      Marshall Islands

       

       

       

      Mauritania

       

       

       

      Micronesia

       

       

       

      Montserrat

       

       

       

      Namibia

       

       

       

      Nauru

       

       

       

      Niger

       

       

       

      Niue

       

       

       

      Palau

       

       

       

      Palestine

       

       

       

      Rwanda

       

       

       

      Saint Helena

       

       

       

      Saint Kitts & Nevis

       

       

       

      Saint Lucia

       

       

       

      Saint Pierre & Miquelon

       

       

       

      Saint Vincent & Grenadines

       

       

       

      Samoa

       

       

       

      Sao Tome & Principe

       

       

       

      Seychelles

       

       

       

      Sierra Leone

       

       

       

      Sint Maarten (Dutch)

       

       

       

      Solomon Islands

       

       

       

      Somalia

       

       

       

      South Sudan

       

       

       

      Timor

       

       

       

      Togo

       

       

       

      Tonga

       

       

       

      Turks & Caicos Islands

       

       

       

      Tuvalu

       

       

       

      Vanuatu

       

       

       

      Wallis & Futuna

       

       

       

       

      About TRENDLines Research

      Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.



      ~




      ~

      • the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis)

      • Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973

      • all charts, tables & text ?1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research 

      ~

      เล่นบาคาร่าออนไลน์ฟรี พันทิป


      My status


      clik to follow @TrendlinesDotCa for new chart alerts